Collectible Minifigure Rarity

When I started the Collectible Minifigure Guide, I was under the impression that if you bought a case of 60 mystery bags, you would have an equal chance of obtaining any of the 16 figures. It may have not always been the same mix, but the probabilities were the same. Some folks on the BrickLink forums, have me thinking otherwise.

There are claims that the ratios of certain figures were consistent from case to case, but some figures were more inherently rare. This also assumes that some of the figures were made at lower quantities than others. The hypothesized rarities for Series 1 are as follows:

- Commons (5 per case): Ninja, Diver, Crash Test Dummy
- Uncommons (4 per case): Robot, Spaceman, Forestman, Cowboy, Magician, Caveman
- Rare (3 per case): Zombie, Tribal Hunter, Wrestler, Cheerleader, Clown, Nurse, Skater

Looking at this list, its difficult to say how these rarities were determined by TLG. One might say production costs would be a factor, with figures having more custom parts or more intricate print on the torso or legs having fewer quantities.

Expect there to be similar rarities in the Series 2 collection. Joe Meno of BrickJournal has posted a small article on Facebook about his trip to Billund and his briefing on Series 2 . Joe mentioned that because The Spartan has so many accessories, he is likely to be "the rarest of the second wave". The US will likely see fewer of these figures overall, similar to what's happened on Series 1 distribution.

With the launch of Series 2 likely to start in Europe in August (if not July) and the US in September, we shall soon see which figs will be the rarest of them all.

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